Mediterranean climate future
A new investigation provides an insightful look into the Mediterranean basin's precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing. The aim is to improve climate models simulating the impact of greenhouse gas warming in this critical world region.
The increase in greenhouse gas concentration threatens to strain the inhabitants of Mediterranean countries through a gradual, persistent decrease in rainfall. In fact, it is plausible that greenhouse gas drying has already affected the weaker countries in the region contributing to social instability, conflict and open war. The forced Mediterranean drying trend is clearly delineated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2013), albeit with a large degree of uncertainty regarding its rate.
The key finding of the study is that observed reductions in cyclonic activity, and hence of precipitation over the Mediterranean Basin, are linearly related to the intensity of the seasonal mean wind over the region. A simple measure of the intensity of the seasonally averaged, atmospheric circulation over the Basin may thus become a powerful tool in forecasting the climate future of Mediterranean countries.