Assessing the cost of global warming for the Arab world
The Syrian economist, Ahmad Sadiddin, is assessing the financial implications of global warming in the Arab world. Working from the University of Florence, Italy, the economist is modelling the cost of climate change by piecing together whatever data is available for four countries : Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt. Saddidin explains that “Rainfall across the MENA region, especially in Mediterranean countries, is going to decrease, and agriculture consumes 80% of water in the region.” Climate change will not be felt in equal measures everywhere and many climate models predict that the Arab world will be one of the hardest-hit regions.
Many Arab countries already struggle with water and food security and this situation will only get harder. Sadiddin is collaborating with Moroccan researcher Aziz Elbehri, a senior economist at the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations in Rome. The aim of their joint work is to assess the efficiency of a country’s agriculture in producing the best crops based on water availability and what consumers there actually want to eat. They hope to give recommendations for how each country should use its water and also how it can adapt to climate change.
The approach will be of interest to Arab governments throughout the MENA region. Populations are on the rise, which means demand for food and water can only intensify, making research like that being conducted by Sadiddin and Elbehri especially relevant. Countries across the region from Morocco to Qatar have placed a priority on research into novel water supplies As stated by Elbehri. “There are many regions experiencing water scarcity, but no region is as water-poor as the Middle East.”