Smoothing out the flow of the Nile to face climate change

The future flow of the Nile may drastically vary as a result of climate change. A new study by researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), predicts that there will be more floods with the annual flow of the river  increasing by up to 15% while the future annual variation in the flow may raise by 50%. Being able to predict the amount of flow variability will become ever more important as the population of the Nile River basin, primarily in Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia, is expected to double by 2050, reaching nearly 1 billion. These regions are the primary sources of the Nile’s waters, accounting for some 80% of the river’s total flow. 

The new analysis will help guiding the placement and operation of new and existing dams. Egypt relies on the Nile for electricity, farming and drinking water and  since Ethiopia announced the project to build the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, there has been controversy. To smooth out the Nile’s flow, countries in the basin need to work together in order to create sufficient storage and build new dams. Unlike Egypt’s large Aswan Dam, which was built with storage in mind, the new Ethiopian one is designed for electricity production, an estimated 6,000 megawatts of power. Once the dam is up and running, storage would have to be increased by about 45% to meet downstream demands in periods of prolonged drought. 

Egyptian farmers have been cultivating lands for seven thousand years, and have always found a way around water shortages. But now it's different, according to the socio-economist Magda Ghoneim, “Farmers have traditional knowledge, which they lived by for a long time. But this knowledge is now falling short”. The Egyptian government is looking into several options to adapt to the effects of the new dam project, including telemetry, water-saving irrigation systems, and desalination. A navigational course from Lake Victoria to the Mediterranean is on the table, which would provide eight billion cubic meters more water for Sudan and Egypt. The High Aswan Dam may be managed more efficiently to decrease evaporation of water. However, there are still many unknowns about the potential water stress in the Nile basin and farmers have yet little idea about what it will mean to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

Resources: Video on Nile & climate change | Nile basin Initiative | Egypt’s National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change And Disaster Risk Reduction

See also: 

Environmental peacebuilding in the Jordan river and Nile the river basins

Warning of harshening climate change in Euro-Mediterranean region